FTFL-GE: Sustainability Tech Trends, Insights and a Few Predictions for 2025

Welcome to From the Front Lines – Green Edition, the monthly blog from Bowen’s Sustainability practice. You may already be familiar with Bowen as a growth technology investment bank with practices in Cloud and CX (software and communications), Defense Tech, and Sustainability. Bowen has a great newsletter on M&A, From the Front Lines. We want to have a regular “conversation” on sustainability too, hence the “Green Edition”. Our Sustainability team focuses on multiple areas and three key elements –

We try to always do the right thing at Bowen. In our view, sustainability is critical to managing increasing demands on the resources of the world and clearly “the right thing”, but it’s not a standalone business. Sustainability works when it is an element of a successful business. Another word for it could be “efficiency” – using only the resources necessary drives cost advantages and is almost always best for the environment. That perspective will take us to a sustainable future and is inherent in the businesses we choose to represent. 

A great example is our recent client, BW Fusion, which we represented in their transaction with Bain Capital Double Impact. BWF combines a rich portfolio of ag biologic products with traditional chemical inputs to drive farm profitability. However, an important key to BWF’s success is their Agronomy 365 software and related services. Before they even sell their first product to a customer, they can use Agronomy 365 to take a detailed look at the soil health of a farm to make a prescriptive recommendation that will save the farmer money, drive better results, and reduce the amount of synthetic fertilizer applied, improving the environment. It’s a triple win while driving BWF’s very profitable growth. 

Our goal with FTFL–GE as well as our periodic more detailed reports on topics of interest is to inform and build a dialogue with all the constituencies in our orbit – the entrepreneurs and board members that drive high-growth companies forward, strategic buyers, and financial buyers / investors. Everyone may not always agree with us, but we can learn from each other and find ways to advance our common goals. 

We’ll kick things off by going out on a limb and making a few predictions for 2025. We promise to revisit them next January and keep score. 

1. Will Trump Bump or Dump Sustainability? In our opinion, the new administration will be a mixed bag. Despite fears to the contrary, we think that the incoming Trump administration won’t kill climate investing, and may have a positive impact on some sectors. Three main reasons for this view: (1) Sustainability is really about efficiency, and the private sector will continue to drive it for economic reasons; (2) The US is not the leader in climate investing; (3) The Biden–era Inflation Reduction Act picked specific areas for subsidies. If that is partially repealed, it may drive investment in sectors that the IRA ignored. Where sustainability generates positive economic results, it will flourish. 
2. Carbon Credit Growth: After a lousy 2023 and flat 2024 for carbon credit retirement (meaning utilization), both volume and pricing in the carbon credit market will stabilize and resume growth, particularly in the latter half of the year. Fossil fuels aren’t going away, and if we’re going to meet carbon targets, a financing mechanism for reduction methodologies is needed. Carbon credits are it. The market is benefiting from additional regulation and standardization. The mandatory parts of CORSIA, the aviation carbon offset program, kick in starting in 2027. Standards have been revised and clarified, which benefits all credit buyers, as CORSIA is closely watched as a trend setter. A broader range of companies is setting carbon goals and entering the market as buyers. It has been a bumpy flight, but there are tailwinds now. 
3. More M&A: We think that M&A in general, and in sustainability specifically, will increase in 2025. It is an adage in our group that “it usually takes 10 years to achieve overnight success.” A lot of VC money has gone into ag tech in the last decade and those companies are now maturing. In particular, we think that ag biologics, agronomy, food safety and water / waste management are going to be very active. There are strong drivers for each category. The three major ag biologics deals in Q4 2024 were all backed by PE and created three new platforms on the hunt for add-ons. Multiple food contamination recalls have highlighted the need for better testing and treatment. Understanding soil health using available nutrients more efficiently is what the next generation of agronomy is all about. Finally, buyers and sellers are both getting more realistic about what is a fair deal. We expect the majority of exits to be to PE and PE-backed companies, so profitability remains extremely important. 

We’ve got an upcoming report on smart water management. If you haven’t seen it, take a look at our most recent report on farmer adoption of sustainable agtech practices, which highlighted why some technologies are getting faster adoption than others. Links to all of our reports published last year are below as well.  

Feel free to email Managing Director Bob Fleming at rfleming@boweninc.com and Associate Maria Gomez-Cambronero at mgomez-cambronero@boweninc.com with comments or suggestions regarding topics you’d like us to cover. And as always, if we can be of assistance to you, please reach out. Best wishes for a fantastic 2025. Q4 2024 was an amazing quarter in ag biologics, with three major private equity transactions, including BW Fusion. We’re excited about what we see going forward, with upcoming projects in food safety, precision farming, carbon management, water and waste, and energy. It promises to be an exciting year.

Select Projects

What We’re Reading 

• 2024 was ‘a year of reckoning for agtech’ | AgFunderNews 
• 5 agriculture trends to watch in 2025 | Agriculture Dive 

2024 Bowen Market Report Topics 

• December 2024, Farmer Adoption of Sustainable Agtech Practices 
• October 2024, Food Safety Market Report 
• September 2024, Sustainability Market Overview: Bowen Highlights in Agriculture, Water & Waste, and Energy 
• August 2024, Carbon Credits Market Report 
• July 2024, Water Treatment & Chemicals Market Report 
• February 2024, Agriculture Biologicals Market Report 
• February 2024, Precision Agriculture Market Report 

Download all of our reports published last year.

Read From the Front Lines.